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[Quelle: Risk, Compliance & Audit, Ausgabe 05/2010, Seite 12-18]
[Source: Discussion Paper No 13, Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies, 2009, Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt/Main]
[Quelle: Brzozowska, Aneta/Stübner, Peter: Bewertung von Risikokonzentrationen – mehr als nur neue Kennzahlen, in: RISIKO MANAGER, Ausgabe 17/2010, S. 1, 8-16.]
Second, it explains inaccuracy in terms of optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Third, the theoretical basis is presented for a promising new method called "reference class forecasting", which achieves accuracy by basing forecasts on actual performance in a reference class of comparable projects and thereby bypassing both optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Fourth, the paper presents the first instance of practical reference class forecasting, which concerns cost forecasts for large transportation infrastructure projects. Finally, potentials for and barriers to reference class forecasting are assessed.
[Source: Flyvbjerg, Bent: From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right, in: Project Management Journal (Project Management Institute) 37 (3): 5–15.]
[Authors: M.Prokopczuk, S.Rachev and S.Trueck]
[Source: Airmic/Alarm/IRM (2010): A structured approach to Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) and the requirements of ISO 31000]
[Source: Alberts, Christopher/Audrey Dorofee/Lisa Marino (2008): Mission Diagnostic Protocol, Version 1.0: A Risk-Based Approach for Assessing the Potential for Success. Software Engineering Institute, March 2008]
[Quelle: die bank, Nr. 4/2010, S. 28-31]
[Quelle: Markus J. Rieder/Olaf Schulze: Ein Modell zur Scoring-Beauskunftung, in: RIsiko MANAGER 11/2010, S. 10-17.]